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 decision environment


Value-based Fast and Slow AI Nudging

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Nudging is a behavioral strategy aimed at influencing people's thoughts and actions. Nudging techniques can be found in many situations in our daily lives, and these nudging techniques can targeted at human fast and unconscious thinking, e.g., by using images to generate fear or the more careful and effortful slow thinking, e.g., by releasing information that makes us reflect on our choices. In this paper, we propose and discuss a value-based AI-human collaborative framework where AI systems nudge humans by proposing decision recommendations. Three different nudging modalities, based on when recommendations are presented to the human, are intended to stimulate human fast thinking, slow thinking, or meta-cognition. Values that are relevant to a specific decision scenario are used to decide when and how to use each of these nudging modalities. Examples of values are decision quality, speed, human upskilling and learning, human agency, and privacy. Several values can be present at the same time, and their priorities can vary over time. The framework treats values as parameters to be instantiated in a specific decision environment.


Predictive Modeling with Delayed Information: a Case Study in E-commerce Transaction Fraud Control

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In Business Intelligence, accurate predictive modeling is the key for providing adaptive decisions. We studied predictive modeling problems in this research which was motivated by real-world cases that Microsoft data scientists encountered while dealing with e-commerce transaction fraud control decisions using transaction streaming data in an uncertain probabilistic decision environment. The values of most online transactions related features can return instantly, while the true fraud labels only return after a stochastic delay. Using partially mature data directly for predictive modeling in an uncertain probabilistic decision environment would lead to significant inaccuracy on risk decision-making. To improve accurate estimation of the probabilistic prediction environment, which leads to more accurate predictive modeling, two frameworks, Current Environment Inference (CEI) and Future Environment Inference (FEI), are proposed. These frameworks generated decision environment related features using long-term fully mature and short-term partially mature data, and the values of those features were estimated using varies of learning methods, including linear regression, random forest, gradient boosted tree, artificial neural network, and recurrent neural network. Performance tests were conducted using some e-commerce transaction data from Microsoft. Testing results suggested that proposed frameworks significantly improved the accuracy of decision environment estimation.